The Death Of The Mouse?
After nearly 40 years, the days of the computer mouse may be numbered.
An analyst at research company Gartner predicts the demise of the mouse in the next three to five years, with so-called gestural computer mechanisms such as touch screens and facial recognition devices taking over.
Analyst Steve Prentice's prediction is driven by the efforts of consumer electronics firms which are making products with new interaction interfaces inspired by the world of gaming.
“The mouse works fine in the desktop environment but for home entertainment or working on a notebook, it’s over,” claims Prentice. He cites a number of companies that are developing new technology.
“You've got Panasonic showing forward facing video in the home entertainment environment. Instead of using a conventional remote control you hold up your hand and it recognises you have done that.”
“It also recognises your face and that you are you and it will display on your TV screen your menu. You can move your hand to move around and select what you want.”
“Sony and Canon and other video and photographic manufacturers are using face recognition that recognises your face in real time. And it recognises even when you smile.”
A device set to hit the market in September takes this development even further.
“You even have emotive systems where you can wear a headset and control a computer by simply thinking.”
However, those in the business of making mice are not wholly in agreement with Prentice’s predictions.
“The death of the mouse is greatly exaggerated,” believes Rory Dooley, senior vice president and general manager of Logitech’s control devices unit.
Logitech is the world’s biggest manufacturer of mice and keyboards and has sold more than 500 million mice over the last 20 years.
“This just proves how important a device the mouse is,” claims Dooley.
However he also agrees that the number of ways people can interact with a computer are rising, and his own company are manufacturing many of them.
“People have been talking about convergence for years. Today's TV works as a computer and today's computer works as a TV.”
“The devices we use have been modified for our changing lifestyles but it doesn't negate the value of the mouse,” Dooley explains.
The mouse was invented by Dr Douglas Englebart at the Stanford Research Institute, but he never received any royalties for the invention partly because his patent ran out in 1987 before the PC revolution made the mouse indispensible.
Dooley believes Gartner’s prediction for the mouse is too gloomy given that the developing world has still to get online. There are around one billion people online but the world's population is over five billion.
With a 40-year anniversary planned for later in the year, Dooley says, “The mouse will be even more popular than it is today as a result.”
“Bringing technology, education and information to these parts of the world will be done by accessing web browsers and doing that in the ways that we are familiar with today and that is using a mouse.”
Will the mouse become extinct in the next five years? Or will the mouse remain an integral part of computing and technology?
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